Based on my count, we will have 16 RFAs on June 30, 2008. For the purposes of this post, I broke them down into 3 groups (marginal, depth, & core players).

The marginal players include Reid, Grant, and 3 of our goalie prospects (Houle, Munroe, & Beauchemin). To be perfectly honest, I wouldn’t lose any sleep if any of them left, and therefore, I am not even discuss them in this post.

The depth players really represent a majority of the Phantoms’ blue line, as well as the Flyers’ emergency call up for injuries. Four of the six players are defensemen (Picard, Guenin, J. Timonen, & Jonsson), which at one point in time or another have been discussed occupying one of the spots on the Flyers blue line. The other two players in this group are Cote & Ruzicka.

All 6 of them are currently making around $500,000 to $600,000. The problem with the defensemen is that all of them are not going to start playing with the big club at the same time. I hate to say it, but I think we give them all qualifying offers on 2 way contracts, and I would do the same with Cote & Ruzicka. I would also listen to any trade offers for picks.

The only player that might be considered borderline is Picard, since he did show glimpses last year of being able to play with the big club. However, his fate is really tied to how well Jones continues to play. If Jones play drops off, or if he is moved, then there might be more of an opportunity for Picard.

The core group of RFAs are Carter, Richards, Coburn, Umberger, & Jones. These guys are playing night after night, and contributing meaningful minutes.

I used the following assumptions to determine what we can afford to offer them. First, the CAP not increasing next year, and remaining at the current level of $50.3 million. My calculation is currently sitting at approximately $1.5 million under the CAP. Next year, we get relief for the previous buyouts of about $1 million. However, I am presuming that it is going to take a raise in the $2 million range for Jason to re-sign, which leaves us with only $500,000 to sign our RFAs unless we dump some salary.

The first choice for a salary dump is Hatcher. He has played really well these first 6 games, but it is time to move on. We are going to have to dump his $3.5 million salary by either waiving him, or trying to move him for picks. Depending on when the move is made will determine if we can get any assets for him. We could probably get a pick, if we move him at the trading deadline, but if we wait until the off season, then I do not think we will get anything for him.

The next salary dump would be Knuble. His $2.8 million CAP hit, along with the development of RJ might make this an easy dump. We can’t carry both Knuble & RJ anymore. It has to be one or the other, and I agree that we have to go down the youth path unless we can get a really good offer for RJ.

Depending on what the core group is expecting maybe we can get away with just dumping those two salaries, which would put us approximately $6.8 million under the current CAP. The only other remaining veteran salary remaining would be Sami’s $1.25 million (i.e. brings us to about $8 million under CAP). Other factors may effect what we can do (i.e. Jason might sign for less than a $2 million raise, the CAP might increase by a few million, etc.), but we will have to wait and see.

So what can we do?

First of all, I do not expect any hometown discounts unless we get one from Richards, but I doubt it. As for what they are offered, in the old days the team would just throw one out there, and work out the details later. However, the way other teams are handing out Offer Sheets we would be better off getting them signed before they have a chance to receive an Offer Sheet.

All of my estimates are based on them continuing on playing like they started the year. Any change on how they are playing would effect how much I would be willing to give them.

Jones has been solid, but not spectacular. I would expect reasonable raises for Randy in the $300,000 to $500,000 range.

RJ’s flexibility (i.e. either playing center or wing) should earn him a decent raise. A raise in the $1 million dollar area would not be out of line.

Coburn, Carter, & Richards should each receive a raise in the same range of between $1.3 and $2.5 million. I will use an average of $2 million each.

So in total the expected raises for the core group of players will be approximately $7.5 million, which approximates the salary dump of Hatcher, Knuble, & Sami. Hopefully, the CAP goes up a bit, Jason takes a bit less to resign, etc. The other decision we will have to make is if any of the core group of players receive an Offer Sheet. Do we Match, or do we take the picks?

That is a lot of ifs.

What are your thoughts on how we handle our 2008 RFAs?